The election is heating up.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race in the latest NBC News national poll, with Trump recovering support from Republicans after a difficult debate performance and a subsequent dip in the polls. Voters’ favorable view of his presidency has also helped him pull even with Harris, just three weeks ahead of Election Day.
The poll shows Harris’s popularity has slipped after a summertime boost, revealing a significant gender gap in voter support for her versus Trump. Additionally, abortion has emerged as a critical issue motivating voters as the 2024 election approaches. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, highlighted that any momentum Harris had over the summer has stalled, leading to a deadlock in the race. McInturff pointed to voters’ concerns that Harris may not represent enough change from the Biden administration, and some voters are viewing Trump’s previous term more positively compared to President Biden’s.
While Harris faces the challenge of persuading voters she represents a new direction, Trump’s challenge lies in addressing concerns over the chaos and personal controversies that marred his first term. Both candidates face an uncertain electorate, with 10% of voters still open to changing their minds, and third-party candidates potentially playing a pivotal role, giving Trump a slight edge when included in the ballot.
Turnout will be critical in this closely fought election. The poll indicates that a higher turnout among men, white voters, and non-college-educated voters could give Trump a 2-point lead. Conversely, if more women, college-educated white voters, and voters of color turn out, Harris could lead by 3 points. All results are within the poll’s margin of error, emphasizing the election’s razor-thin margins.
