This spells bad news for Harris.
A recent Fox News national survey reveals that former President Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race, with 50% of respondents favoring Trump compared to Harris’s 48%. This represents a change from the previous month, when Harris had a slight edge. However, Harris performs better in key battleground states, where she leads by 6 points. In closely contested counties—areas where the 2020 Biden-Trump margin was under 10 points—the candidates are tied at 49% each. Trump’s advantage is primarily seen in counties he won by more than 10 points in the last election.
The implications of the survey suggest a potential scenario where a Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, reminiscent of the 2000 and 2016 elections. Trump’s 2-point lead falls within the survey’s margin of error, with similar results for both likely and registered voters. Last month, Harris was leading by 2 points among these groups, indicating a dynamic race that has remained closely contested for several months.
Trump’s current numbers represent his strongest showing since Harris became the nominee in August, driven by increased support among White voters and significant approval from those aged 65 and older. On the other hand, Harris is seeing a decline in support among Black voters and college graduates since her nomination. Despite these shifts, the race has remained tight, with only minor fluctuations in support for each candidate over recent months.
Pollster Chris Anderson emphasizes that while Trump’s slight gains are noteworthy, the overall race remains within the margin of error, highlighting that the outcome may hinge more on which party effectively mobilizes its voters rather than swaying undecided voters. A notable gender gap exists, with men more likely to back Trump and women leaning toward Harris. Harris does enjoy significant support among independents and is capturing a majority of new voters and non-MAGA Republicans.
While Harris maintains a lead among Hispanic voters and younger demographics, these numbers fall short of the support that Biden received in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump has seen improvements across various issues and character traits since September, with 53% of respondents approving of his presidency—a notable increase compared to his in-office approval ratings. His support remains robust among Republicans and non-MAGA Republicans, as well as a sizable segment of independents.
