It’s a mind-blowing future.
A recent report from Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for humanoid robots—machines equipped with limbs and AI-driven intelligence—could exceed $250 billion by 2035, nearly doubling the size of the current automotive industry.
The report estimates that by 2035, over 1 billion robots could be in operation worldwide, primarily in industrial and commercial settings. Around 930 million of these humanoids are expected to perform repetitive and structured tasks in factories and businesses within the next decade. However, more versatile humanoid robots designed for home use will require significant technological advancements in AI and hardware, likely delaying widespread household adoption by another ten years.
Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley’s head of Global Autos and Shared Mobility Research, notes that home use of humanoids will be far more limited initially, projecting only about 80 million units in residences by 2035. The report also highlights that regulatory approval, social acceptance, and decreasing costs are critical factors for expanding the presence of humanoid robots in homes and communal living spaces.
Currently, humanoids cost around $200,000, but prices are expected to drop to approximately $50,000 by 2035, with even lower costs—down to $15,000—in lower-income countries by utilizing China’s more affordable supply chains. Key components such as motors, batteries, and screws are predominantly sourced from China and Asia, with few U.S.-based alternatives. The report anticipates that by 2035, about 10% of U.S. households earning $50,000 or more annually could own humanoids, with ownership rising to roughly one-third among households earning over $200,000.
China, despite leading in total units, is expected to have only about 3% of households owning humanoid robots by that time. Jonas suggests that while some households might own multiple units, the forecast assumes one humanoid per household for now. He also warns that the U.S. must enhance manufacturing, education, and policy efforts to compete effectively with China in the development of these technologies.
The consumer robot industry has been growing steadily, with innovations ranging from robots in unique roles like priests and brothels to those handling household chores. However, commercial use of humanoid robots is advancing faster. For instance, Foxconn, a Taiwanese electronics company, and AI chipmaker Nvidia are reportedly collaborating to use humanoid robots at a Houston factory to assemble Nvidia AI servers. This initiative will mark the first instance of Nvidia products being built with humanoid robot assistance and the first use of humanoids on Foxconn’s AI production line.
